Monday, October 08, 2012

Poll Watch: Susquehanna (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Susquehanna (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama (D) 47% [47%] (48%) {46%} [48%] (43%)
  • Mitt Romney (R) 45% [45%] (47%) {43%} [43%] (45%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 3% 
  • Jill Stein (G) 0%
  • Undecided 4%
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney (R) 49%
  • Barack Obama (D) 42%
Among Women
  • Barack Obama (D) 52%
  • Mitt Romney (R) 42%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 
  • Mitt Romney 48% [41%] (41%) {39%} / 42% [47%] (43%) {41%} {+6%}
  • Barack Obama 50% [47%] (46%) {46%} / 47% [44%] (47%) {45%} {+3%}
Do you think Barack Obama has done his job as President well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance?
  • Re-elect Obama 47%
  • New person 50%
Did you watch the first Presidential debate?
  • Yes 76%
  • No 24%
(If Yes) Did the debate change your mind about who you are voting for?
  • Yes, from Obama to Romney 3%
  • Yes, from Romney to Obama 1%
  • Yes, Other 1%
  • No 94%
Survey of 725 likely voters was conducted October 4-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.64 percentage points.  Party registration: 48% Democrat; 42% Republican; 10% Independent/Other.  Ideology: 46% Conservative; 25% Moderate; 25% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 2-6, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers: 
When the undecided voters leaning towards a candidate are factored in (breaking 3:1 for Romney), the race narrows to a 1-point Obama lead (47-46). Plus, among those who say they have an “excellent” chance of voting (639 respondents out of 725 likely voters), Romney leads 47-46.

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