Thursday, October 21, 2010

Gallup: Palin's Nod a Positive with GOPers, Negative with Independents

Inside the numbers:
Palin's 31-percentage-point net positive impact on Republican voters is easily less than Bill Clinton's 48-point net positive impact and Barack Obama's 42-point net positive impact on Democratic voters. In this sense she is less of an asset to Republican candidates than the marquee Democratic campaigners are to Democratic candidates. On the other hand, her campaigning on behalf of a candidate is less likely to have a negative impact on independent voters than Obama's, -16 vs. -27. Also, Palin's -68 point net negative impact on Democratic voters is on par with Obama's -69 net negative impact on Republican voters.

The results are from a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 14-17, just before the former Alaska governor began a two-week road trip to campaign on behalf of Tea Party candidates leading up to the midterm congressional elections.

Not surprisingly, Palin's positive influence is greater among conservative Republicans than among moderate and liberal Republicans, including independents who lean Republican. Among conservative Republicans -- 62% of whom are Tea Party supporters -- 44% say Palin's campaigning on behalf of a local candidate would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, and 6% say it would make them less likely to do so. This 38-point net positive impact narrows to 7 points among moderate and liberal Republicans, 25% of whom say Palin's campaigning would make them more likely to vote for a candidate and 18% of whom say it would make them less likely to do so.


While Palin's influence on Republican voters as a whole is more positive than negative, the concentration of this influence among conservative Republicans underscores the risk factor she brings to the campaign trail. Although her influence on moderate and liberal Republicans is more positive than negative, this is true to a much smaller degree and is more than doubly outweighed by her negative impact on independents. This reality is likely already clear to Republican candidates who have chosen not to appear with Palin on her trips through their area.
Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17, 2010, with a random sample of 935 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

No comments: