Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey 

• Rick Perry 30% {27%} [15%] (14%)
• Mitt Romney 18% {14%} [17%] (16%)
• Sarah Palin 15% {10%} [12%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 12% {6%} [12%] (8%)
• Herman Cain 5% {2%} [4%] (6%)
• Newt Gingrich 5% {6%} [5%] (4%)
• Michele Bachmann 4% {9%} [7%] (12%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {1%} [4%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 2% {1%} [2%] (2%)
• Someone else (vol.) 2% {3%} [2%] (1%)
• None/No one (vol.) 4% {5%} [4%] (8%)
• No opinion 2% {3%} [2%] (1%)

Among Republicans (MoE: +/-6.0%)

• Rick Perry 35% {29%} [21%] (15%)
• Mitt Romney 17% {16%} [17%] (18%)
• Sarah Palin 16% {8%} [15%] (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Michele Bachmann 6% {11%} [6%] (9%)
• Ron Paul 6% {5%} [10%] (8%)
• Herman Cain 4% {2%} [3%] (4%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} [4%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 2% {1%} [2%] (2%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents (MoE: +/-7.0%)

• Rick Perry 23% {26%} [7%] (14%)
• Mitt Romney 19% {13%} [16%] (12%)
• Ron Paul 19% {6%} [14%] (9%)
• Sarah Palin 13% {14%} [9%] (10%)
• Herman Cain 6% {3%} [6%] (8%)
• Newt Gingrich 3% {9%} [6%] (4%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% {1%} [4%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 2% {6%} [7%] (15%)
• Rick Santorum 1% {1%} [2%] (0%)

Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Rick Perry 38% {37%} [20%] (22%)
• Mitt Romney 16% {11%} [15%] (12%)
• Sarah Palin 14% {6%} [11%] (10%)
• Ron Paul 8% {5%} [12%] (9%)
• Herman Cain 7% {2%} [4%] (10%)
• Newt Gingrich 5% {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Michele Bachmann 4% {14%} [11%]
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} [4%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 1% {2%} [1%] (1%)

Tea Party Neutral (MoE: +/-7.5%)

• Rick Perry 22% {18%} [9%] (5%)
• Sarah Palin 18% {14%} [13%] (13%)
• Mitt Romney 18% {16%} [18%] (22%)
• Ron Paul 13% {6%} [12%] (6%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% {5%} [5%] (4%)
• Michele Bachmann 4% {6%} [3%] (5%)
• Herman Cain 3% {3%} [3%] (2%)
• Rick Santorum 2% {1%} [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {0%} [2%] (0%)

Among Men (MoE: +/-6.5%)

• Rick Perry 30% {32%} [13%] (20%)
• Mitt Romney 19% {14%} [12%] (17%)
• Sarah Palin 14% {8%} [10%] (9%)
• Ron Paul 12% {6%} [17%] (8%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% {6%} [7%] (4%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% {8%} [9%] (13%)
• Herman Cain 4% {2%} [5%] (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} [4%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 0% {1%} [3%] (1%)

Among Women (MoE: +/-7.0%)

• Rick Perry 30% {23%} [16%] (8%)
• Mitt Romney 16% {15%} [22%] (15%)
• Sarah Palin 15% {13%} [15%] (17%)
• Ron Paul 10% {5%} [5%] (8%)
• Newt Gingrich 5% {5%} [3%] (4%)
• Herman Cain 5% {2%} [3%] (4%)
• Rick Santorum 3% {1%} [1%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% {0%} [4%] (1%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% {10%} [4%] (9%)

If Sarah Palin doesn't run

• Rick Perry 32% {32%} [18%] (17%)
• Mitt Romney 21% {18%} [23%] (22%)
• Ron Paul 13% {6%} [14%] (12%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% {12%} [9%] (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% {7%} [8%] (5%)
• Herman Cain 6% {3%} [5%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {1%} [5%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 2% {1%} [3%] (2%)
• Someone else (vol.) 2% {4%} [2%] (3%)
• None/No one (vol.) 4% {6%} [5%] (10%)
• No opinion 3% {4%} [4%] (2%)

Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year?

• Rick Perry 41%
• Mitt Romney 28% {42%}
• Newt Gingrich 6% {9%}
• Sarah Palin 6% {14%}
• Herman Cain 5% {3%}
• Ron Paul 4% {3%}
• Michele Bachmann 3% {2%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% {1%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {0%}

If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party nominate a presidential candidate who agrees with you on every issue that matters to you but may not be able to beat Barack Obama, or a presidential candidate who can beat Barack Obama but does not agree with you on every issue that matters to you?

• Agrees with you on issues 24% {24%}
• Can beat Barack Obama 75% {75%}

I'm going to read some names and ask how you would feel if each of them won the Republican presidential nomination next year. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would feel enthusiastic, pleased but not enthusiastic, displeased but not upset, or upset if that person were the Republican nominee?


Rick Perry

• Enthusiastic 35%
• Pleased, but not enthusiastic 42%
• Displeased, but not upset 14%
• Upset 7%

Mitt Romney

• Enthusiastic 27% [21%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 49% [49%]
• Displeased but not upset 20% [22%]
• Upset 5% [7%]

Michele Bachmann

• Enthusiastic 17%
• Pleased, but not enthusiastic 40%
• Displeased, but not upset 29%
• Upset 13%

Sarah Palin

• Enthusiastic 23% [26%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 32% [30%]
• Displeased but not upset 25% [28%]
• Upset 19% [15%]

Ron Paul

• Enthusiastic 18% [20%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 33% [43%]
• Displeased but not upset 34% [24%]
• Upset 14% [10%]

Which Republican candidate do you think is the strongest leader?

• Rick Perry 36%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Sarah Palin 14%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%

Which Republican candidate do you think is the most likeable?

• Rick Perry 25%
• Sarah Palin 22%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Michele Bachmann 11%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Newt Gingrich 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%

Which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?

• Rick Perry 42%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• Sarah Palin 7%
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Herman Cain 3%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 0%

Which Republican candidate is most likely to agree with you on the issues that matter most to you?

• Rick Perry 26%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Herman Cain 5%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 1%

Which Republican candidate is most likely to be able to get the economy moving?

• Rick Perry 35%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Sarah Palin 9%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%

Which Republican candidate is most likely to fight for their beliefs?

• Rick Perry 29%
• Sarah Palin 23%
• Ron Paul 13%
• Michele Bachmann 11%
• Mitt Romney 11%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Herman Cain 3%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%

Survey of 446 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted September 9-11, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2011 are in square brackets.