Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Massachusetts 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Massachusetts 2012 Senate Poll

• Elizabeth Warren (D) 49% (48%) {45%} [46%] (44%)
• Scott Brown (R) 47% (48%) {45%} [45%] (49%)
• Some other candidate 0% (1%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
• Undecided 4% (3%) {8%} [8%] (5%)

Among Independents

• Scott Brown (R) 63% (66%) {54%}
  
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 33% (26%) {37%}

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression. 

Scott Brown 

• Very favorable 33% (32%)
• Somewhat favorable 22% (24%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 8% (25%)
• Very unfavorable 35% (18%)

Elizabeth Warren

• Very favorable 35% (32%)
• Somewhat favorable 19% (19%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 24% (14%)
• Very unfavorable 20% (33%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Scott Brown 55% (56%) / 43% (43%) {+12%}
  
• Elizabeth Warren 54% (51%) / 44% (47%) {+10%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 7, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 29, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-six percent (96%) of likely voters in the Bay State now say they are certain to vote. Among these voters, it's Warren 49%, Brown 48%.

Warren has the support of only 82% of the state’s Democrats. Brown has the backing of 97% of Republicans and 13% of Massachusetts Democrats.

Brown leads by 20 points among male voters, but Warren has a similar lead among female voters. Married voters and those with children at home prefer the Republican. His Democratic challenger leads among unmarried voters and those who don't have children living with them.

Most voters under 40 favor Warren, while older voters give the nod to the incumbent.