Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Nevada 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Nevada 2012 Senate Poll

• Dean Heller (R) 48% (42%) {51%} [51%] (47%) 
• Shelley Berkley (D) 45% (41%) {42%} [40%] (40%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression. 

Dean Heller

• Very favorable 28% (23%)
• Somewhat favorable 22% (20%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% (21%)
• Very unfavorable 28% (25%)

Shelley Berkley  

• Very favorable 21% (24%)
• Somewhat favorable 19% (14%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 17% (18%)
• Very unfavorable 36% (36%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dean Heller 50% (43%) / 44% (46%) {+6%}
• Shelley Berkley 40% (38%) / 53% (54%) {-13%}

Survey of 500 likely Nevada voters was conducted October 8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 30, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-two percent (92%) of Likely Voters in the Silver State say they are certain to vote in this year’s election. Among those voters, Heller leads 49% to 45%.

Heller has the support of 89% of the state’s Republicans, while 82% of Nevada Democrats are backing Berkley. The Democrat leads 46% to 38% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, but 16% of these voters are either undecided or interested in some other candidate in the race.

Heller leads among male voters and voters over 40. Berkley has a smaller advantage among female voters and those under 40. The Republican has a sizable lead among whites, while Berkley is far ahead among blacks and Hispanics.