Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Virginia 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Virginia 2012 Senate Poll

• Tim Kaine (D) 52% {47%} [45%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (45%) {44%} [46%] (46%)
• George Allen (R) 45% {45%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (45%)
• Some other candidate 0% {2%} [2%] (2%) {5%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [3%] (3%)
• Undecided 3% {6%} [8%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {7%} [5%] (7%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Tim Kaine 

• Very favorable 25% {30%}
• Somewhat favorable 27% {20%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 17% {18%}
• Very unfavorable 26% {25%}

George Allen

• Very favorable 27% {24%}
• Somewhat favorable 23% {22%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 18% {17%}
• Very unfavorable 26% {29%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

• Tim Kaine 52% {50%} / 43% {43%} {+9%}
• George Allen 50% {46%} / 44% {46%} {+6%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 16-17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 21, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 28, 2011 are in parentheses. 

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-one percent (91%) of likely Virginia voters say they are certain to vote next month. Among these voters, the race remains close with 49% who support Kaine and 48% who favor Allen.

Both candidates draw strong support from voters in their own parties. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Allen holds a slight 46% to 44% advantage.

Kaine leads by 10 points among female voters but is tied with Allen among male voters. The Republican has the edge among voters over 40, while younger voters overwhelmingly prefer the Democrat.