Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Poll Watch: United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

United Technologies/National Journal 2012 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters
  • Barack Obama 47%
  • Mitt Romney 47%
Registered Voters
  • Barack Obama 49%
  • Mitt Romney 44%
Survey of likely voters was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID (among likely voters): 36% Democrat; 29% Republican; 30% Independent.

Inside the numbers: 
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the non-white vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
Whoever wins the presidency, voters don’t want to give the winner’s party a blank check to run the federal government. A solid majority of likely voters (55 percent) said that if Obama is reelected, they still hope that Republicans keep at least one chamber of Congress. Similarly, more than six in 10 voters said that if Romney wins, they prefer that Democrats keep at least one chamber “so they can act as a check” on his agenda.
The desire to curb whichever party is in power is shared by Democrats and Republicans alike. Among Romney supporters, 32 percent still hope for Democrats to control at least one chamber. And among Obama backers, 23 percent want Republicans to wield the gavel in the House, the Senate, or both.
Notably, fewer than one in 10 likely voters said they didn’t want a check on either the Romney or Obama agenda.
Forty-five percent of voters said Democratic leaders were more likely to compromise, while 31 percent said Republicans were, and 8 percent volunteered that neither party was more likely to do so.
The divide among partisans was telling. Far more Democrats viewed their own leaders as more willing to compromise (81 percent) than Republicans did (66 percent). Among independents, 40 percent saw Democrats as more willing to compromise, compared with only 30 percent for Republicans.

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