Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Rick Santorum 34% (15%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)  
• Mitt Romney 32% (34%) {28%} [20%] (24%) {26%} [22%] (21%) {18%} [23%] (22%)
• Ron Paul 16% (15%) {14%} [9%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (13%) {6%} [14%] (12%) 
• Newt Gingrich 15% (18%) {28%} [24%] (22%) {8%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (5%) 
• None/No one (vol.) 2% (3%) {5%} [3%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (10%)
• No opinion 2% (3%) {4%} [2%] (4%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (2%)

Among Republicans (MoE: +/- 6.0%)

• Rick Santorum 41%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 15% 
• Ron Paul 11% 
• None/No one (vol.) 2%
• No opinion 1%

Among Independents (MoE: +/- 7.0%)

• Mitt Romney 34%
• Rick Santorum 23%
• Ron Paul 23% 
• Newt Gingrich 15%
  
• None/No one (vol.) 2%
• No opinion 3%

Do you support that candidate strongly, or only moderately?

• Strongly 34%
• Only moderately 66%

Among Santorum Voters

• Strongly 55%
• Only moderately 45%

Among Romney Voters

• Strongly 38%
• Only moderately 62%

How satisfied are you with the field of Republican candidates running for President?

• Very satisfied 9%
• Fairly satisfied 46%
• Not very satisfied 31%
• Not satisfied at all 13%

Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year?

• Mitt Romney 68% {41%} {51%} (28%)
• Rick Santorum 13% {2%} {1%} (1%) 
• Newt Gingrich 11% {37%} {3%} (6%)
• Ron Paul 5% {4%} {3%} (4%)

Which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?

• Mitt Romney 55% (55%) {36%} [40%] {41%} (26%)
• Rick Santorum 18% (9%) {2%} [2%] {1%} (0%) 
• Newt Gingrich 14% (13%) {35%} [21%] {5%} (5%)
• Ron Paul 7% (9%) {6%} [4%] {7%} (5%)

I'm going to read some names and ask how you would feel if each of them won the Republican presidential nomination next year. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would feel enthusiastic, pleased but not enthusiastic, displeased but not upset, or upset if that person were the Republican nominee?

Rick Santorum

• Enthusiastic 32%
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 37%
• Displeased but not upset 21%
• Upset 10%

Mitt Romney

• Enthusiastic 21% (17%) [25%] (27%) [21%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 44% (47%) [44%] (49%) [49%]
• Displeased but not upset 24% (22%) [18%] (20%) [22%]
• Upset 11% (13%) [10%] (5%) [7%]

Newt Gingrich

• Enthusiastic 20% [29%] [16%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 39% [41%] [34%]
• Displeased but not upset 23% [16%] [35%]
• Upset 18% [11%] [12%]

Ron Paul

• Enthusiastic 16% [14%] (18%) [20%]
• Pleased but not enthusiastic 36% [29%] (33%) [43%]
• Displeased but not upset 27% [32%] (34%) [24%]
• Upset 20% [18%] (14%) [10%]

Survey of 478 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted February 10-13, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2011 are in square brackets.