Poll Watch: POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Poll

POLITICO/GWU 2012 Battleground Poll

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (49%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {53%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney 48% [48%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {43%} [43%] 

(Among Obama Voters) Would you say that your vote for Barack Obama is more of a vote for Barack Obama, or a vote against Mitt Romney?

• For Obama 73% {75%} [77%]
• Against Romney 23% {19%} [18%]

Would you say that your vote for Mitt Romney is more of a vote for Mitt Romney, or a vote against Barack Obama?

• For Romney 59% {47%} [39%]
• Against Obama 31% {42%} [52%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama [52%] (50%) {53%} [50%] / [45%] (47%) {46%} [47%] {+7%}
• Mitt Romney [47%] (46%) {46%} [46%] / [47%] (48%) {49%} [46%] {0%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

• Approve [50%] (49%) {50%} [49%]
• Disapprove [48%] (49%) {47%} [50%]

I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.

The Economy

• Approve 48% [45%] (46%) {48%} [44%]
• Disapprove 51% [53%] (52%) {51%} [54%]

The Federal Budget and Spending 

• Approve 40% [39%] (42%) {40%} [37%]
• Disapprove 56% [57%] (56%) {57%} [61%]

Foreign Policy

• Approve 48% {50%} [52%]
• Disapprove 46% {45%} [43%]

Taxes

• Approve 49% {51%} [46%]
• Disapprove 46% {46%} [50%]

Medicare

• Approve 50% {50%}
• Disapprove 45% {44%}

Standing Up for the Middle Class

• Approve 57% {58%}
• Disapprove 41% {39%}

I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue -- Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

Jobs

• Mitt Romney 49% [49%] (48%) {48%} [50%] 
• Barack Obama 47% [46%] (47%) {48%} [44%]

The Economy

• Mitt Romney 50% [49%] (49%) {48%} [49%] (48%)
• Barack Obama 47% [47%] (47%) {49%} [44%] (45%)

Standing Up for the Middle Class

• Barack Obama 54% [56%] (54%) {57%} [54%] (58%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 42% [40%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (35%)
  

Taxes

• Barack Obama 49% [50%] (49%) {50%} [47%] (51%)
  
• Mitt Romney 47% [44%] (46%) {46%} [47%] (45%)
  

Medicare

• Barack Obama 52% [51%] (50%) {52%} [49%] (47%)
  
• Mitt Romney 43% [43%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (44%)
  

Foreign Policy

• Barack Obama 49% [50%] (52%) {52%} [54%] (51%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 45% [44%] (40%) {43%} [39%] (38%)
  

The Federal Budget and Spending

• Mitt Romney 54% [50%] (50%) {50%}
  
• Barack Obama 42% [44%] (43%) {45%}

Sharing Your Values

• Barack Obama 50% [50%] (48%)
  
• Mitt Romney 46% [45%] (45%)
  

Being a Strong Leader

• Barack Obama 49% [50%] (50%)
  
• Mitt Romney 47% [45%] (43%)
  

Can Get Things Done

• Mitt Romney 48% [46%] (47%)
  
• Barack Obama 45% [46%] (45%)

On October 3rd, there was a Presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Did you watch this Presidential debate or did you watch any news coverage about this debate?

• Yes/watched debate 70%
• Yes/watched news coverage 16% 
• No/did not watch 14%
  

(If Yes) Who do you think was the winner of this debate?

• Mitt Romney 77%
  
• Barack Obama 16%

Did this debate make you more likely or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney? Or did this debate not make a difference to you?

• More likely 34%
• Less likely 13%
• No difference 52%

Did this debate make you more likely or less likely to vote for Barack Obama? Or did this debate not make a difference to you?

• More likely 12%
• Less likely 25%
• No difference 63%

Regardless of who you intend to vote for – which candidate for President do you think is going to win the election?

• Barack Obama 53% [61%] (61%) {60%} [56%] 
  
• Mitt Romney 37% [31%] (29%) {30%} [33%]
  

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 7-11, 2012 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] Democrat; 40% [40%] (41%) {40%} [40%] Republican; 15% [16%] (15%) {15%} [15%] Independent.  Ideology: 19% [21%] (21%) {21%} [24%] Very conservative; 37% [37%] (38%) {36%} [33%] Somewhat conservative; 27% [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] Somewhat liberal; 10% [13%] (10%) {12%} [11%] Very liberal. Race: 77% [77%] White; 12% [12%] Black; 6% [7%] Hispanic.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted October 1-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-9, 2011 are in square brackets.