Monday, October 15, 2012

Poll Watch: POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Poll

POLITICO/GWU 2012 Battleground Poll
  • Barack Obama 49% [49%] (49%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {53%} [49%]
  • Mitt Romney 48% [48%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {43%} [43%] 
(Among Obama Voters) Would you say that your vote for Barack Obama is more of a vote for Barack Obama, or a vote against Mitt Romney?
  • For Obama 73% {75%} [77%]
  • Against Romney 23% {19%} [18%]
Would you say that your vote for Mitt Romney is more of a vote for Mitt Romney, or a vote against Barack Obama?
  • For Romney 59% {47%} [39%]
  • Against Obama 31% {42%} [52%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Barack Obama [52%] (50%) {53%} [50%] / [45%] (47%) {46%} [47%] {+7%}
  • Mitt Romney [47%] (46%) {46%} [46%] / [47%] (48%) {49%} [46%] {0%}
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?
  • Approve [50%] (49%) {50%} [49%]
  • Disapprove [48%] (49%) {47%} [50%]
I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.

The Economy
  • Approve 48% [45%] (46%) {48%} [44%]
  • Disapprove 51% [53%] (52%) {51%} [54%]
The Federal Budget and Spending 
  • Approve 40% [39%] (42%) {40%} [37%]
  • Disapprove 56% [57%] (56%) {57%} [61%]
Foreign Policy
  • Approve 48% {50%} [52%]
  • Disapprove 46% {45%} [43%]
Taxes
  • Approve 49% {51%} [46%]
  • Disapprove 46% {46%} [50%]
Medicare
  • Approve 50% {50%}
  • Disapprove 45% {44%}
Standing Up for the Middle Class
  • Approve 57% {58%}
  • Disapprove 41% {39%}
I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue -- Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

Jobs
  • Mitt Romney 49% [49%] (48%) {48%} [50%
  • Barack Obama 47% [46%] (47%) {48%} [44%]
The Economy
  • Mitt Romney 50% [49%] (49%) {48%} [49%] (48%)
  • Barack Obama 47% [47%] (47%) {49%} [44%] (45%)
Standing Up for the Middle Class
  • Barack Obama 54% [56%] (54%) {57%} [54%] (58%) 
  • Mitt Romney 42% [40%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (35%)
Taxes
  • Barack Obama 49% [50%] (49%) {50%} [47%] (51%)
  • Mitt Romney 47% [44%] (46%) {46%} [47%] (45%)
Medicare
  • Barack Obama 52% [51%] (50%) {52%} [49%] (47%)
  • Mitt Romney 43% [43%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (44%)
Foreign Policy
  • Barack Obama 49% [50%] (52%) {52%} [54%] (51%) 
  • Mitt Romney 45% [44%] (40%) {43%} [39%] (38%)
The Federal Budget and Spending
  • Mitt Romney 54% [50%] (50%) {50%}
  • Barack Obama 42% [44%] (43%) {45%}
Sharing Your Values
  • Barack Obama 50% [50%] (48%)
  • Mitt Romney 46% [45%] (45%)
Being a Strong Leader
  • Barack Obama 49% [50%] (50%)
  • Mitt Romney 47% [45%] (43%)
Can Get Things Done
  • Mitt Romney 48% [46%] (47%)
  • Barack Obama 45% [46%] (45%)
On October 3rd, there was a Presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Did you watch this Presidential debate or did you watch any news coverage about this debate?
  • Yes/watched debate 70%
  • Yes/watched news coverage 16% 
  • No/did not watch 14%
(If Yes) Who do you think was the winner of this debate?
  • Mitt Romney 77%
  • Barack Obama 16%
Did this debate make you more likely or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney? Or did this debate not make a difference to you?
  • More likely 34%
  • Less likely 13%
  • No difference 52%
Did this debate make you more likely or less likely to vote for Barack Obama? Or did this debate not make a difference to you?
  • More likely 12%
  • Less likely 25%
  • No difference 63%
Regardless of who you intend to vote for – which candidate for President do you think is going to win the election?
  • Barack Obama 53% [61%] (61%) {60%} [56%
  • Mitt Romney 37% [31%] (29%) {30%} [33%]
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 7-11, 2012 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] Democrat; 40% [40%] (41%) {40%} [40%] Republican; 15% [16%] (15%) {15%} [15%] Independent.  Ideology: 19% [21%] (21%) {21%} [24%] Very conservative; 37% [37%] (38%) {36%} [33%] Somewhat conservative; 27% [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] Somewhat liberal; 10% [13%] (10%) {12%} [11%] Very liberal. Race: 77% [77%] White; 12% [12%] Black; 6% [7%] Hispanic.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted October 1-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

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