Poll Watch: POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Brushfire Poll

POLITICO/GWU 2012 Battleground Brushfire Poll

• Barack Obama 49% (49%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {53%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney 48% (47%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {43%} [43%] 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 52% (50%) {53%} [50%] / 45% (47%) {46%} [47%] {+7%}
• Mitt Romney 47% (46%) {46%} [46%] / 47% (48%) {49%} [46%] {0%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

• Approve 50% (49%) {50%} [49%]
• Disapprove 48% (49%) {47%} [50%]

I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue.

The Economy

• Approve 45% (46%) {48%} [44%]
• Disapprove 53% (52%) {51%} [54%]

The Federal Budget and Spending 

• Approve 39% (42%) {40%} [37%]
• Disapprove 57% (56%) {57%} [61%]

I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue -- Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

Jobs

• Mitt Romney 49% (48%) {48%} [50%] 
• Barack Obama 46% (47%) {48%} [44%]

The Economy

• Mitt Romney 49% (49%) {48%} [49%] (48%)
• Barack Obama 47% (47%) {49%} [44%] (45%)

Standing Up for the Middle Class

• Barack Obama 56% (54%) {57%} [54%] (58%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 40% (41%) {38%} [40%] (35%)
  

Taxes

• Barack Obama 50% (49%) {50%} [47%] (51%)
  
• Mitt Romney 44% (46%) {46%} [47%] (45%)
  

Medicare

• Barack Obama 51% (50%) {52%} [49%] (47%)
  
• Mitt Romney 43% (42%) {43%} [45%] (44%)
  

Foreign Policy

• Barack Obama 50% (52%) {52%} [54%] (51%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 44% (40%) {43%} [39%] (38%)
  

The Federal Budget and Spending

• Mitt Romney 50% (50%) {50%}
  
• Barack Obama 44% (43%) {45%}

Sharing Your Values

• Barack Obama 50% (48%)
  
• Mitt Romney 45% (45%)
  

Being a Strong Leader

• Barack Obama 50% (50%)
  
• Mitt Romney 45% (43%)
  

Can Get Things Done

• Mitt Romney 46% (47%)
  
• Barack Obama 46% (45%)

Regardless of who you intend to vote for – which candidate for President do you think is going to win the election?

• Barack Obama 61% (61%) {60%} [56%] 
  
• Mitt Romney 31% (29%) {30%} [33%]
  

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 1-4, 2012 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 44% (43%) {43%} [44%] Democrat; 40% (41%) {40%} [40%] Republican; 16% (15%) {15%} [15%] Independent.  Ideology: 21% (21%) {21%} [24%] Very conservative; 37% (38%) {36%} [33%] Somewhat conservative; 25% (25%) {26%} [26%] Somewhat liberal; 13% (10%) {12%} [11%] Very liberal. Race: 77% White; 12% Black; 7% Hispanic.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted September 24-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-9, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers: 

Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats. 

Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.

This poll was in the field last Monday through Thursday, but about 85 percent of the calls were made before the debate on Wednesday night. The final night of tracking was good for Romney, but it’s not a big enough sample to report. So this does not reflect any momentum Romney might get from his performance in Denver.

The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.

Romney now leads among independents by 16 points, 51 percent to 35 percent. This is up from 4 points last week. But he still trails in the overall head-to-head numbers because of near monolithic support for Obama among minority Democrats.

Romney is also finally benefiting from revelations about the Obama administration mishandling its response to the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya. Obama’s lead over Romney on who is better able to handle foreign policy shrank from 12 points to 6 points last week.

Romney is no longer underwater on likability, with an identical 47 percent viewing him favorably and unfavorably. 

But he has a continuing problem with women, among whom Obama leads by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent. Asked about Romney as a person, 51 percent of women say they have an unfavorable impression.

The good news for Obama is that 46 percent are firmly committed to supporting him, while only 41 percent are firm that they will vote to replace him. Nine percent say they’ll consider someone else.

The bad news for the incumbent is that he faces an undercurrent of strongly negative feelings that will keep Republicans animated.

Among all likely voters, 54 percent say the country is on the wrong track, and twice as many feel strongly that the country is headed on the wrong track as strongly think it’s moving in the right direction.