Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 50% {47%} [47%] (47%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 44% {41%} [31%] (34%)
• Some other candidate 3% {3%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 3% {9%} [17%] (16%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jeff Flake 48% {48%} / 44% {43%} {+4%}
• Richard Carmona 46% {50%} / 46% {31%} {0%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 21, 2012 for KPHO CBS5 (Phoenix, AZ). The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 26, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Arizona Republicans back Flake, while Carmona draws support from 76% of the state's Democrats. Carmona leads 56% to 33% among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

Early voting has begun in Arizona, and among those who have already voted, Carmona leads 48% to 46%. Among those who say they are certain to vote in this election, Flake leads 50% to 45%.

Flake is viewed favorably by 48% of Arizona voters and unfavorably by 44%. This includes 27% with a Very Favorable view of him and 27% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Forty-six percent (46%) have a favorable opinion of Carmona, a former U.S. surgeon general, while another 46% view him unfavorably. This includes 21% who regard him Very Favorably and 26% with a Very Unfavorable view. Carmona has gained more name recognition in the past month. Last month, nearly one-in-five voters did not know enough about him to venture an opinion.