Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 48% (46%) {52%} [47%] (47%) {37%} [47%] (36%) {41%} [39%]
• Connie Mack (R) 43% (45%) {41%} [40%] (40%) {46%} [36%] (43%) {41%} [43%]

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Bill Nelson

• Very favorable 24% (23%) {17%} [21%] (21%)
• Somewhat favorable 26% (24%) {33%} [30%] (27%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 20% (16%) {15%} [18%] (19%)
• Very unfavorable 21% (24%) {25%} [20%] (18%)

Connie Mack

• Very favorable 16% (21%) {15%} [17%] (14%)
• Somewhat favorable 27% (23%) {23%} [23%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 23% (20%) {24%} [24%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 26% (22%) {26%} [24%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 50% (47%) {50%} [51%] (48%) / 41% (40%) {40%} [38%] (37%) {+9%}
• Connie Mack 43% (44%) {38%} [40%] (39%) / 49% (42%) {50%} [48%] (42%) {-6%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-five percent (95%) of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are certain to vote in the election. Among these voters, it’s Nelson 48%, Mack 44%.

Florida allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, Nelson has a 56% to 40% lead.

Mack has the support of just 77% of Florida Republicans, while 80% of the state’s Democrats favor Nelson. The incumbent leads by 12 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.