Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Montana 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Montana 2012 Senate Poll

• Jon Tester (D) 48% [43%] (47%) {43%} [44%] (44%)
• Denny Rehberg (R) 48% [47%] (49%) {53%} [47%] (47%)
• Some other candidate 3% [5%] (2%) {2%} [6%] (4%)
• Undecided 2% [5%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (5%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Jon Tester

• Very favorable 30%
• Somewhat favorable 22%
• Somewhat unfavorable 15%
• Very unfavorable 30%

Denny Rehberg

• Very favorable 22%
• Somewhat favorable 23%
• Somewhat unfavorable 15%
• Very unfavorable 34%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jon Tester 52% / 45% {+7%}  
• Denny Rehberg 45% / 49% {-4%}

Survey of 500 likely Montana voters was conducted October 14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 2, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 22, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-three percent (93%) of likely Montana voters say they are certain to vote in the election. Among these voters, Tester leads 49% to 47%.

Both Senate candidates earn nearly 90% support from voters in their own party. Among voters not affiliated with either of those parties, Tester is ahead by 20 points.