Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 49% {49%} [49%] (48%)
• Tom Smith (R) 45% {42%} [38%] (41%)
• Some other candidate 1% {2%} [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% {7%} [9%] (7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among those who are absolutely certain they will show up and vote, the Senate race is even closer: 49% for Casey and 46% for Smith.

Forty-six percent (46%) of all likely voters in the state now have a favorable opinion of each candidate. For Casey, that's a decline from 51% a month ago. His negatives are nearly as high, with 43% now voicing an unfavorable opinion of the first-term senator.

Smith's favorability ratings are little changed, although his negatives have inched up a few points to 37%.

Casey has a modest lead among both male and female voters in the state.

While both men do well within their own party, Casey has a six-point lead among voters not affiliated with either the Republicans or the Democrats.