Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 46% (49%) {49%} [49%] (48%)
• Tom Smith (R) 45% (45%) {42%} [38%] (41%)
• Some other candidate 0% (1%) {2%} [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 9% (5%) {7%} [9%] (7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 24, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 9, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety percent (90%) of likely Pennsylvania voters are certain they will vote on Election Day. Among these voters, it's Smith 47%, Casey 46%.

Smith, a Tea Party favorite, draws support from 87% of Republicans in Pennsylvania and leads 41% to 31% among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties. Casey, the son of a popular former governor and a one-time state official himself, is backed by 83% of Democrats.

Smith leads Casey 51% to 40% among men in the state but trails by nine points among women. Young voters and senior citizens support Casey, but middle-aged voters favor Smith.

Casey is viewed favorably by 43% of Pennsylvania voters and unfavorably by 42%. That includes Very Favorables of 12% and Very Unfavorables of 20%.

Forty-seven percent (47%) share a favorable impression of Smith, while 34% view him unfavorably. These figures include 20% who have a Very Favorable impression of the Republican and 18% who have a Very Unfavorable opinion.