Poll Watch: American Research Group 2012 Presidential Survey

ARG 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49% [49%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 46% [47%] (49%)
• Other/Undecided 5% [4%] (5%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 89% [90%] (85%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 7% [6%] (11%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 91% [92%] (92%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 3% [5%] (5%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 50% [50%] (49%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 43% [43%] (44%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 52% [51%] (54%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 44% [45%] (41%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 51% [52%] (51%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% [43%] (45%)

Age 18-49

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 50% [50%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% [45%] (46%)

Age 50+

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 48% [48%] (43%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 48% [48%] (52%)

Among Whites

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 54% [55%] (57%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 43% [41%] (39%)

Among Blacks

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 92% [92%] (89%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 5% [5%] (5%)

Survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 38% [40%] (38%) Democrat; 32% [34%] (34%) Republican; 30% [26%] (28%) Independent. Gender: 49% [48%] (48%) Male; 51% [52%] (52%) Female.  Race: 77% [77%] (76%) White; 13% [12%] (12%) Black. Age: 18-49: 48% [49%] (49%); 50 and older: 52% [51%] (51%). Results from the poll conducted September 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney leads Obama 49% to 47% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (80% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 56% to 35% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (20% of likely voters).

A total of 47% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 41% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.