Poll Watch: American Research Group 2012 Presidential Survey

ARG 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 48% {46%} [47%] (49%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 47% {49%} [49%] (46%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 87% {89%} [90%] (85%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 9% {7%} [6%] (11%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 92% {91%} [92%] (92%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 5% {3%} [5%] (5%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 52% {50%} [50%] (49%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 42% {43%} [43%] (44%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 52% {52%} [51%] (54%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 45% {44%} [45%] (41%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 50% {51%} [52%] (51%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 45% {44%} [43%] (45%)

Age 18-49

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 50% {50%} [50%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% {44%} [45%] (46%)

Age 50+

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 53% {48%} [48%] (52%) 
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 45% {48%} [48%] (43%)

Among Whites

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 54% {54%} [55%] (57%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 42% {43%} [41%] (39%)

Among Blacks

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 94% {92%} [92%] (89%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 3% {5%} [5%] (5%)

Survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted October 5-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% {38%} [40%] (38%) Democrat; 33% {32%} [34%] (34%) Republican; 28% {30%} [26%] (28%) Independent. Gender: 49% {49%} [48%] (48%) Male; 51% {51%} [52%] (52%) Female.  Race: 78% {77%} [77%] (76%) White; 12% {13%} [12%] (12%) Black. Age: 18-49: 48% {48%} [49%] (49%); 50 and older: 52% {52%} [51%] (51%). Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney leads Obama 51% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (78% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 52% to 39% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (22% of likely voters).

A total of 47% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.