Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Iowa 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) Iowa 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 48% (49%) {44%} [44%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 48% (47%) {47%} [46%] (47%)
• Some other candidate 1% (1%) {3%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 2% (2%) {5%} [6%] (4%)
  

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney?

• Very favorable 29% (29%) {26%} [20%] (12%)
• Somewhat favorable 21% (20%) {22%} [30%] (34%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% (15%) {11%} [18%] (25%)
• Very unfavorable 35% (35%) {38%} [31%] (26%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 50% (49%) {48%} [50%] (46%) / 49% (50%) {49%} [49%] (51%) {+1%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

• Strongly approve 31% (32%) {30%} [30%] (29%)
• Somewhat approve 17% (17%) {20%} [18%] (19%)
• Somewhat disapprove 5% (12%) {7%} [9%] (13%)
• Strongly disapprove 45% (37%) {43%} [42%] (37%)

President Obama Job Approval

• Approve 48% (49%) {50%} [48%] (48%)
  
• Disapprove 50% (49%) {50%} [51%] (50%)
  

Survey of 500 likely Iowa voters was conducted October 21, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Early voting in Iowa started in late September, and 32% of voters in the state have already cast their ballots. Among these voters, the president is ahead 56% to 41%.

Ninety-five percent (95%) of voters in Iowa are certain they will vote this November. Among this group, Romney's ahead 49% to 47%.

Just 56% of the state's voters say they've made up their minds who they will vote for, and among these voters, it's Romney 59%, Obama 39%. Among the 44% who still could change their minds, the president leads 61% to 34%.

Iowa voters trust Romney more than Obama, 50% to 45%, to handle the economy, but the two candidates are evenly divided when it comes to voter trust on national security issues.

Romney holds a 15-point advantage over Obama among male voters in Colorado but trails by 14 points among female voters. Obama leads Romney 48% to 43% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.