Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49% (49%) {47%} [50%]
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 47% (48%) {49%} [47%]

Among Registered Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49% (50%) {46%} [47%] (49%) {51%} [47%] (51%) {46%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (49%) {46%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% (44%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {44%} [49%] (45%) {48%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [49%] (47%) {49%} [45%]

(Among Obama Voters) Will you definitely vote for Barack Obama, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? If there's a chance you could change your mind, is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or is it a pretty unlikely chance?

• Definitely vote for Obama 84% (86%) {84%} [81%]
• Chance change mind, but unlikely 10% (7%) {8%} [13%]
• Good chance will change mind 5% (4%) {6%} [4%]

(Among Romney Voters) Will you definitely vote for Mitt Romney, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? If there's a chance you could change your mind, is there a good chance you'll change your mind, or is it a pretty unlikely chance?

• Definitely vote for Romney 88% (85%) {82%} [77%]
• Chance change mind, but unlikely 10% (9%) {10%} [13%]
• Good chance will change mind 1% (5%) {5%} [8%]

(Among Obama Voters) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting Barack Obama, somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

• Very enthusiastic 51% (56%) {48%} [51%] (51%)
• Somewhat enthusiastic 40% (38%) {39%} [40%] (41%)
• Not so enthusiastic 7% (3%) {7%} [5%] (4%)
• Not enthusiastic at all 2% (3%) {4%} [3%] (4%)

(Among Romney Voters) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting Mitt Romney, somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

• Very enthusiastic 48% (46%) {42%} [38%] (26%)
• Somewhat enthusiastic 39% (40%) {41%} [47%] (48%)
• Not so enthusiastic 6% (7%) {12%} [11%] (15%)
• Not enthusiastic at all 7% (6%) {4%} [4%] (9%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? 

• Approve 49% (48%) {47%}
• Disapprove 49% (50%) {50%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? 

• Approve 47% (45%) {43%}
• Disapprove 52% (53%) {56%}
  

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling international affairs?

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 48%
  

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?

• Barack Obama 47% (47%) {43%} [45%] (47%) {44%} (44%)
• Mitt Romney 47% (45%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {48%} (50%)
  

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job dealing with the federal budget deficit?

• Mitt Romney 48% (47%) {51%} [51%] {54%} (52%)
• Barack Obama 45% (44%) {38%} [43%] {37%} (39%)

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling health care policy?

• Barack Obama 48% (47%) {47%} [48%] {49%}
• Mitt Romney 44% (44%) {45%} [44%] {40%}

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job dealing with social issues such as abortion and gay marriage?

• Barack Obama 52% (50%) {52%} {47%}
• Mitt Romney 38% (39%) {38%} {39%}

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling terrorism?

• Barack Obama 53% (51%) {47%} (54%)
• Mitt Romney 39% (40%) {43%} (38%)

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling international affairs?

• Barack Obama 49% (51%) {46%} {56%} (55%)
• Mitt Romney 44% (38%) {41%} {37%} (38%)

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling taxes?

• Barack Obama 49% (50%) {43%} [46%] {48%} (49%)
  
• Mitt Romney 44% (43%) {48%} [46%] {43%} (45%)

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling Medicare, the government health insurance program for seniors?

• Barack Obama 47% (48%) {42%}
• Mitt Romney 43% (43%) {45%}

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job addressing women's issues?

• Barack Obama 54% (55%) {51%} {54%}
• Mitt Romney 36% (34%) {35%} {37%}

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling an unexpected major crisis?

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 42%

Regardless of who you may support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having?

• Barack Obama 52% (50%) {47%} [51%] (48%) {49%} (52%)
• Mitt Romney 39% (40%) {40%} [40%] (40%) {38%} (37%)

Regardless of who you may support, who do you think seems like the more friendly and likable person?

• Barack Obama 62% (61%) {61%} [63%] {64%}
• Mitt Romney 29% (27%) {27%} [26%] {28%}

Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Barack Obama, or not? He knows enough about world affairs to serve effectively as president.

• Yes 64%
• No 34%
  

Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Mitt Romney, or not? He knows enough about world affairs to serve effectively as president.

• Yes 51%
• No 43%
  

If Barack Obama is re-elected, how confident are you, if at all, that the country will get back on track economically in the next year or two?

• Very confident 14% (19%) {14%}
• Somewhat confident 34% (27%) {28%}
• Not so confident 18% (17%) {18%}
• Not confident at all 35% (36%) {40%}

If Mitt Romney is elected, how confident are you, if at all, that the country will get back on track economically in the next year or two?

• Very confident 12% (14%) {11%}
• Somewhat confident 39% (35%) {35%}
• Not so confident 21% (19%) {21%}
• Not confident at all 27% (31%) {32%}

Do you think Obama does more to favor the middle class or more to favor the wealthy?

• Favor middle class 66% {62%}
• Favor wealthy 17% {23%}

Do you think Romney does more to favor the middle class or more to favor the wealthy?

• Favor middle class 35% {32%}
• Favor wealthy 57% {58%}

Do you think of Romney's wealth as more of a positive because it suggests he has achieved the American dream or as more of a negative because it suggests he benefited from opportunities that are not available to most people? 

• Positive 51% (43%)
  
• Negative 42% (46%)

Mitt Romney paid about a 14 percent federal tax rate on income of about 14 million dollars last year. Do you think he is or is not paying his fair share of taxes?

• Paying fair share 46% (30%)
  
• Not paying fair share 48% (66%)

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will win the debates – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 56%
• Mitt Romney 29%

Just your best guess, who do you think will win the presidential election this year, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 63% {56%}
• Mitt Romney 31% {37%}

On a ship in a storm, who would you rather have as the captain, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 52% (46%)
• Mitt Romney 40% (43%)

Who would you rather have babysit your children, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 41%
• Mitt Romney 41%

Who would you rather go on an overnight camping trip with, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 34%

Who would you rather invite to dinner at your home, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Barack Obama 54% (52%)
• Mitt Romney 32% (33%)

Whose music playlist would you rather listen to, Barack Obama’s or Mitt Romney’s?

• Barack Obama 46%
• Mitt Romney 30%

Who would you rather see as a contestant on Dancing with the Stars, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? 

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 26%

Survey of 929 registered voters, including 813 likely voters, was conducted September 26-29, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 4 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID (among likely voters): 33% (33%) Democrat; 30% (27%) Republican; 33% (36%) Independent.  Party ID (among registered voters): 33% (32%) {32%} Democrat; 28% (26%) {25%} Republican; 34% (37%) {36%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-10, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-4, 2012 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 31 - November 3, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in square brackets.