Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll

• Claire McCaskill (D) 51% [51%] (49%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
• Todd Akin (R) 43% [45%] (43%) {38%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%) 
• Some other candidate 3% [1%] (4%) {9%} [4%] (2%) {2%} [4%]
• Undecided 3% [3%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (7%) {7%} [4%]

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Claire McCaskill

• Very favorable 29% [14%] (24%) {19%}
• Somewhat favorable 18% [27%] (25%) {29%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% [11%] (15%) {12%}
• Very unfavorable 35% [44%] (33%) {36%}

Todd Akin

• Very favorable 10% [30%] (16%) {11%}
• Somewhat favorable 25% [17%] (23%) {24%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 19% [17%] (14%) {16%}
• Very unfavorable 43% [34%] (42%) {47%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Claire McCaskill 47% [41%] (49%) {48%} / 51% [55%] (48%) {48%} {-4%}
• Todd Akin 35% [47%] (39%) {35%} / 62% [51%] (56%) {63%} {-27%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 17, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 30, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Missouri voters are certain they will vote this election. Among those who are certain to vote, McCaskill leads 51% to 45%.

Akin leads by 16 among male voters in the state, but McCaskill holds a 26-point lead among female voters.

McCaskill is supported by 93% of voters in her own political party, while Akin is backed by 84% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the incumbent 45% to 42%.