Poll Watch: Western New England University Massachusetts 2012 Senatorial Survey

Western New England University Massachusetts 2012 Senate Poll

Likely Voters

• Elizabeth Warren (D) 50% [50%]
• Scott Brown (R) 45% [44%]

Among Independents

• Scott Brown (R) 62% [57%]
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 35% [35%]

Among Men

• Scott Brown (R) 56% [49%]
• Elizabeth Warren (D) 38% [44%]

Among Women

• Elizabeth Warren (D) 61% [55%]
• Scott Brown (R) 35% [40%]
  

Registered Voters

• Elizabeth Warren (D) 50% [53%] (45%) {41%} [42%] (34%)
• Scott Brown (R) 44% [41%] (43%) {49%} [47%] (51%)

Are you very sure about your choice for the Senate, or might you change your mind before Election Day?

Likely Voters

• Very sure 84% [82%]
• Might change mind 15% [17%]

Registered Voters

• Very sure 81% [78%] (72%) {69%}
• Might change mind 18% [21%] (26%) {31%}

Among Warren Voters

• Very sure 84% [83%] (69%)
• Might change mind 14% [16%] (28%)

Among Brown Voters

• Very sure 84% [82%] (75%)
• Might change mind 16% [18%] (24%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Likely Voters

• Scott Brown 52% [54%] / 36% [32%] {+16%}
• Elizabeth Warren 50% [53%] / 41% [33%] {+9%}
  

Among Independents

• Scott Brown 70% [66%] / 20% [20%] {+50%}
• Elizabeth Warren 36% [43%] / 54% [41%] {-18%}
  

Among Men

• Scott Brown 61% [63%] / 30% [28%] {+31%}
• Elizabeth Warren 39% [49%] / 51% [40%] {-12%}
  

Among Women

• Elizabeth Warren 59% [56%] / 31% [26%] {+28%} 
• Scott Brown 43% [46%] / 41% [35%] {+2%}

Registered Voters

• Scott Brown 50% [52%] (49%) {47%} (52%) (53%)  / 33% [30%] (32%) {28%} (27%) (27%) {+17%}
• Elizabeth Warren 46% [54%] (41%) {37%} (33%) (17%) / 40% [28%] (30%) {20%} (16%) (3%) {+6%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Brown is handling his job as United States senator?

Likely Voters

• Approve 55% [57%]
• Disapprove 33% [30%]

Registered Voters

• Approve 56% [55%] (51%) {54%} (54%) (57%)
• Disapprove 29% [28%] (32%) {28%} (30%) (24%)

Survey of 516 registered voters, including 440 likely voters, was conducted September 28 - October 4, 2012 for The Republican/MassLive.com. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 4.7 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID: 38.64% [36.71%] Democrat; 12.95% [13.74%] Republican; 46.14% [48.87%] Independent.  Gender: 43.86% [50.7%] Male; 56.14% [49.3%] Female. Results from the poll conducted September 6-13, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 29-31, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 23 - March 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-10, 2011 are in parentheses.