Poll Watch: American Research Group 2012 Presidential Survey

ARG 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 48% (48%) {46%} [47%] (49%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 47% (47%) {49%} [49%] (46%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 91% (87%) {89%} [90%] (85%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 4% (9%) {7%} [6%] (11%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 93% (92%) {91%} [92%] (92%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 3% (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 54% (52%) {50%} [50%] (49%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 40% (42%) {43%} [43%] (44%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 56% (52%) {52%} [51%] (54%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 41% (45%) {44%} [45%] (41%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 52% (50%) {51%} [52%] (51%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 41% (45%) {44%} [43%] (45%)

Age 18-49

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 51% (50%) {50%} [50%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44% (44%) {44%} [45%] (46%)

Age 50+

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 52% (53%) {48%} [48%] (52%) 
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 43% (45%) {48%} [48%] (43%)

Among Whites

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 55% (54%) {54%} [55%] (57%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 40% (42%) {43%} [41%] (39%)

Among Blacks

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 95% (94%) {92%} [92%] (89%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 3% (3%) {5%} [5%] (5%)

Survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted October 11-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 38% (39%) {38%} [40%] (38%) Democrat; 34% (33%) {32%} [34%] (34%) Republican; 28% (28%) {30%} [26%] (28%) Independent. Gender: 48% (49%) {49%} [48%] (48%) Male; 52% (51%) {51%} [52%] (52%) Female.  Race: 78% (78%) {77%} [77%] (76%) White; 12% (12%) {13%} [12%] (12%) Black. Age: 18-49: 48% (48%) {48%} [49%] (49%); 50 and older: 52% (52%) {52%} [51%] (51%). Results from the poll conducted October 5-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney leads Obama 52% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (77% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 53% to 36% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (23% of likely voters).

A total of 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 45% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.