Poll Watch: PPP (D) Montana 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Montana 2012 Senate Poll

• Jon Tester (D) 46% {45%} [45%] (48%) {45%} [45%] (46%)
• Denny Rehberg (R) 44% {43%} [43%] (43%) {47%} [47%] (48%)
• Dan Cox (L) 7% {8%} [8%]

Among Independents

• Jon Tester (D) 45% {45%} [41%] (48%) {46%} [51%] (49%)
• Denny Rehberg (R) 41% {36%} [33%] (36%) {41%} [36%] (39%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job performance?

• Approve 40% {41%} [42%] (39%) {41%} [44%]
• Disapprove 52% {52%} [52%] (49%) {47%} [45%]

Survey of 806 likely Montana voters was conducted October 15-16, 2012, on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 8-10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 28-30, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

Tester is benefiting from an extremely unified party base with 91% of Democrats planning to vote for him compared to only 1% who are siding with Rehberg. Tester is also winning over 9% of the Republican vote.

Rehberg continues to be very unpopular with Montana voters. Only 40% approve of the job he’s doing in the House to 52% who express disapproval. He’s at a 37/54 spread with independent voters.

Tester’s lead is being sparked in particular by large leads among women (50/40) and voters under 30 (45/37).